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Okay, so now that the FL and MI issues have been taken care of... sort of...
Clinton picked up 68% of Puerto Rico. (With ~10% voter turnout. Ouch.)
Assume she gets a similar 30 point lead over Obama in the remaining two primaries tomorrow (Montana and S Dakota) - it's not unexpected, these are the same rural white areas that she's done very well in.
Assume further that she gets *80%* of the remaining superdelegates.
Obama still wins the nomination.
In fact, he only needs 18% of the superdelegates with that scenario.
Heck give her 100% of tomorrow's primaries, and Obama needs only 23% to win.
Stick a fork in the fat lady, the barn gate has spilled milk.
Short of a nasty coup at the convention (which I wouldn't find surprising in the least bit), this thing is over. There's no reasonable way that Clinton can get the nomination at this point without permanently destroying her political clout, legacy, and career... and party. (Although I'm not sure that last one is on her radar, to be honest.)
At this point, it's all about saving face.
Clinton picked up 68% of Puerto Rico. (With ~10% voter turnout. Ouch.)
Assume she gets a similar 30 point lead over Obama in the remaining two primaries tomorrow (Montana and S Dakota) - it's not unexpected, these are the same rural white areas that she's done very well in.
Assume further that she gets *80%* of the remaining superdelegates.
Obama still wins the nomination.
In fact, he only needs 18% of the superdelegates with that scenario.
Heck give her 100% of tomorrow's primaries, and Obama needs only 23% to win.
Stick a fork in the fat lady, the barn gate has spilled milk.
Short of a nasty coup at the convention (which I wouldn't find surprising in the least bit), this thing is over. There's no reasonable way that Clinton can get the nomination at this point without permanently destroying her political clout, legacy, and career... and party. (Although I'm not sure that last one is on her radar, to be honest.)
At this point, it's all about saving face.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 06:37 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 07:15 pm (UTC)Unless Hillary divorces Bill, then I could see it. I cannot imagine Obama wants to be in the White House with Bill Clinton looking over his shoulder.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 08:03 pm (UTC)Of course, I can't imagine Obama wants to be in the White House with Hillary Clinton looking over his shoulder.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 07:13 pm (UTC)Hey, could happen.
I agree with you that the fate of the party nowhere impinges on her consciousness, and I wonder who steps into the vacuum if the Dems fall apart? Most of the third parties that are big enough to get any kind of consistent notice tend to the right of the spectrum.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 08:08 pm (UTC)It's funny - I disagree with Obama on many, if not most, of his positions... but I'd rather see him in the White House than Clinton because I see him as much less toxic to the *process*. He seems to have a rational head on his shoulders (cf: Gax Tax Holiday - what BS), which is good, and a passionate heart, which is also good, but I don't agree with his conclusions.
Which is fine. He has my respect, which is more than I can say for the vast majority of politicians.
I'll be interesting to see how the election goes - can Obama pull McCain back to a more reasoned debate on the issues? I think he might just be able to, which would be fabulous. Clinton would inflame the GOP to continue the same old same old we've seen for the past 16 years, and she's be right there sucking bottom with them. Karl Rove learned well, refined it, and she learned right back. Time for that crap to stop.
But of course, without the circus, people might have to start *thinking*, and that's haaaaaard, so you'll see record low voter turnouts.
She could have him assassinated.
Date: 2008-06-02 07:52 pm (UTC)Re: She could have him assassinated.
Date: 2008-06-02 08:02 pm (UTC)Sad day when assassination is seen as a not surprising possibility from a major candidate. I mean, what is this, the USSR??
Patriot Act... TSA... DMCA... DEA... Uh... nevermind.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 08:21 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 08:43 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-02 08:45 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2008-06-06 01:49 pm (UTC)Snort!!
Yer funny!
:-)