Jun. 2nd, 2008

kickaha: (Default)
Okay, so now that the FL and MI issues have been taken care of... sort of...

Clinton picked up 68% of Puerto Rico. (With ~10% voter turnout. Ouch.)

Assume she gets a similar 30 point lead over Obama in the remaining two primaries tomorrow (Montana and S Dakota) - it's not unexpected, these are the same rural white areas that she's done very well in.

Assume further that she gets *80%* of the remaining superdelegates.

Obama still wins the nomination.

In fact, he only needs 18% of the superdelegates with that scenario.

Heck give her 100% of tomorrow's primaries, and Obama needs only 23% to win.

Stick a fork in the fat lady, the barn gate has spilled milk.

Short of a nasty coup at the convention (which I wouldn't find surprising in the least bit), this thing is over. There's no reasonable way that Clinton can get the nomination at this point without permanently destroying her political clout, legacy, and career... and party. (Although I'm not sure that last one is on her radar, to be honest.)

At this point, it's all about saving face.
kickaha: (Default)
Okay, so now that the FL and MI issues have been taken care of... sort of...

Clinton picked up 68% of Puerto Rico. (With ~10% voter turnout. Ouch.)

Assume she gets a similar 30 point lead over Obama in the remaining two primaries tomorrow (Montana and S Dakota) - it's not unexpected, these are the same rural white areas that she's done very well in.

Assume further that she gets *80%* of the remaining superdelegates.

Obama still wins the nomination.

In fact, he only needs 18% of the superdelegates with that scenario.

Heck give her 100% of tomorrow's primaries, and Obama needs only 23% to win.

Stick a fork in the fat lady, the barn gate has spilled milk.

Short of a nasty coup at the convention (which I wouldn't find surprising in the least bit), this thing is over. There's no reasonable way that Clinton can get the nomination at this point without permanently destroying her political clout, legacy, and career... and party. (Although I'm not sure that last one is on her radar, to be honest.)

At this point, it's all about saving face.

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