Gonna be ugly...
May. 3rd, 2008 07:42 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
kickahaI've been playing with CNN's Delegate Counter for the past two months or so, and you know what?
One thing has been consistent... Obama needs only 30% of the delegates at the convention in Denver to clinch the nomination, assuming a consistent 50/50 split on the remaining states and territories. (In fact, that % has gone down a bit - it started about 34%.)
Of course, I don't think anyone should underestimate the ability of the Clinton machine to do backroom deals, so it's not exactly cut and dried, BUT...
Seriously, can you imagine the uproar if Clinton ends up with the majority of the delegates at the convention, but Obama gets the nomination by the party's own rules?
Her only chance at this point, that I see, is that FL and MI get to vote regardless of the rules that they agreed to, and then broke... which is pretty much going to shatter the DNC as I see it, and ensure a McCain win in November. McCain has *just* enough middle of the road appeal to draw off disillusioned folks from the Democrats if they can't even stick to their own rules. (Oh, and if FL and MI's votes *do* end up counting? Obama needs 51% to win. Talk about down to the wire...)
Yup, ugly, and only going to get uglier.
One thing has been consistent... Obama needs only 30% of the delegates at the convention in Denver to clinch the nomination, assuming a consistent 50/50 split on the remaining states and territories. (In fact, that % has gone down a bit - it started about 34%.)
Of course, I don't think anyone should underestimate the ability of the Clinton machine to do backroom deals, so it's not exactly cut and dried, BUT...
Seriously, can you imagine the uproar if Clinton ends up with the majority of the delegates at the convention, but Obama gets the nomination by the party's own rules?
Her only chance at this point, that I see, is that FL and MI get to vote regardless of the rules that they agreed to, and then broke... which is pretty much going to shatter the DNC as I see it, and ensure a McCain win in November. McCain has *just* enough middle of the road appeal to draw off disillusioned folks from the Democrats if they can't even stick to their own rules. (Oh, and if FL and MI's votes *do* end up counting? Obama needs 51% to win. Talk about down to the wire...)
Yup, ugly, and only going to get uglier.