*blink*

[kickaha]

Apple announced earnings tonight.

2.1M Macs sold this past quarter.

According to this here article at the NY Times yesterday, "Gartner forecast that Apple would grow more than 37 percent based on expected shipments of 1.3 million computers, for an 8.1 percent share of the domestic market."

Let's adjust, assuming Gartner's estimate of total sales is accurate...

8.1% = 1.3M/X

X = 16.05M

2.1/16.05M = 13.1%


...


Wow. They broke 10%, and handily. I've said for years, that I'd be thrilled if Apple had 10% of the US market, and stayed there. Now, 20% doesn't look out of the realm of reason. Dayum.

Take out massitude bottom-budget cubicle-filling PC orders, and... that's a serious chunk of the consumer market.

Just, wow.


Edit: If today's after-hours nearly 7% boost to AAPL holds, when the market opens in the morning, Apple will have a larger market cap than IBM or Intel.

Jeebus.

Comments

[georgmi.livejournal.com]

Gartner's figures from the beginning of the quarter had projected sales of Macs *and* projected total sales of PCs. When you update to actual sales of Macs, you gotta update to actual total sales as well.

Granted, total PC sales aren't included in the Apple article, and neither IDC nor Gartner is providing those numbers yet to non-subscribers. But Dell's numbers were way up this quarter too, which suggests to me that the overall market has grown at the same time as Apple's raw numbers.

My back-of-the-envelope calculations, extrapolating from IDC's* numbers here: http://news.digitaltrends.com/news/story/14535/dell_apple_see_computer_sales_gains

have a total US market of 17.85M units, giving Macs a market share for the quarter of 11.76%. Still pretty sweet, but 20% seems still out of the realm for now. OTOH, since Apple owns the OS as well as the hardware, their revenue market share is arouond twice their physical unit share, and there's your 20% right there.

*I used IDC's numbers because they looked more likely to have been updated with recent data than Gartner's, which looked eerily similar to their projections of three months ago. Also they supported my point better. :)

[kickaha.livejournal.com]

"you gotta update to actual total sales as well."

Hence my caveat that of *assuming* that Gartner's final sales numbers were correct. ;) (It's okay to wing it if you tell the audience you're doing so.)

My 20% was a long-term prediction, given that I didn't seriously think they'd hit *10%* for another couple of years. The growth curve in the past 18-24 months is just nuts. If it continues like this, or, god forbid, gains further steam, that 20% could happen in the timeframe that I expected them to hit 10%. (Not that I think that'll happen, to be honest, this curve should flatten out sometime. Really. Any day now.)

And oh yeah, when you're talking revenue %, they just stomp the playing field.

[georgmi.livejournal.com]

Ah, but I was calling you out *for* assuming Gartner's final sales numbers were correct, given how far off they were between their Mac projections versus actual. When you tell me you're winging it, you don't get to complain when I call you on it. :)

I'm actually waiting for total PC sales to start leveling off--it has been several years since hardware performance increases actually translated into an improved ability for Joe User to get his job done. Looks like Vista's insane hardware requirements prevented that from happening this year, but I bet it happens in the next couple, once everyone who *needs* Vista has it.

[kickaha.livejournal.com]

WhatEVer... sheesh.

You seriously underestimate the ability of OS manufacturers (one in particular) to add wasted cycles, don't you? :D Agreed though, that for most users the current trend of "Oh look! Another toolbar!" is a pretty pathetic waste of the hardware. If we've got cycles to spare, they should be used for, oh, I dunno... constantly making incremental backups? Observing work patterns and creating live workspaces? Something *useful*?

Actually, I suspect that it will level off, in that gaming consoles have seriously intruded into the traditional high-end PC gaming realm, and it's that high-end gamer niche market that has driven a lot of the hardware churn for the past decade. As those folks are split between the insane-in-the-game PC group and the consolers, that niche is going to get even smaller. Heck, it's been proportionally shrinking for a while now, but I think it will accelerate.

Which means... who's left to drive HW needs? What segment of the general computing population will break out to be the next big group of whiners? :)

[georgmi.livejournal.com]

I don't make the rules of debate, dude. I just twist 'em to the breaking point. :)

No, I just think it's going to be another 3-5 years before there's another Windows client to up the HW bar yet again at the OS level.

Hell, the 360 and PS3 might even be near the top end of what the software manufacturers want to deliver, polygon- and framerate-wise. (Based on no evidence, I grant, but once you're approaching photorealism at 60 fps, who cares anymore?)